For NHS procurement teams, buying IT hardware has rarely been just about finding a laptop, desktop, server or monitor at the right price.
But in the second half of 2026, the market is becoming noticeably more difficult to navigate.
Global demand for AI infrastructure is putting sustained pressure on memory production. PC manufacturers are dealing with rising component costs. Product availability is becoming more fluid. And all of this is happening while NHS organisations remain under intense pressure to demonstrate efficiency and get more value from every pound spent.
For procurement teams planning device refreshes, infrastructure projects or simply managing day-to-day IT demand, that combination deserves attention.
This isn't necessarily a reason to rush out and buy hardware.
It is a reason to understand what is happening in the market — and potentially change how IT purchases are planned, compared and evidenced.
The IT market has changed significantly during 2026
The scale of the movement in the hardware market is becoming difficult to ignore.
IDC reported that worldwide PC shipments fell 4.9% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, while its wider forecast expects global PC shipments to decline by 11.3% across the full year. IDC also expects average PC selling prices to rise significantly and says it does not anticipate meaningful relief from the memory shortage before the end of 2027.
Gartner has similarly forecast that rising DRAM and SSD costs could contribute to PC prices increasing by around 17% during 2026.
And the pressure has not disappeared as we move through the year.
TrendForce's latest market outlook, published on 30 July, suggests DRAM supply will remain tight into 2027, with demand continuing to outpace supply expansion. AI servers and High Bandwidth Memory are absorbing increasing manufacturing capacity, while meaningful new production capacity takes time to come online.
Earlier Q3 forecasts from TrendForce put conventional DRAM contract price increases at another 13–18% quarter-on-quarter, with NAND Flash expected to rise 10–15%.
Different analysts will inevitably arrive at different percentages.
The direction of travel, however, is remarkably consistent:
memory remains constrained, hardware manufacturers are facing higher costs, and those pressures are working their way into finished IT products.
Why does this matter particularly to the NHS?
Because NHS procurement teams are facing almost the opposite pressure internally.
While the technology market is pushing some costs upwards, NHS organisations are being asked to deliver continued efficiencies.
NHS financial planning for 2026/27 maintains a strong focus on improving productivity and value, including a proposed 2% general efficiency factor. At the same time, significant investment in NHS technology and digital transformation is expected to support wider productivity improvements across the health service.
So the requirement for technology is not disappearing.
If anything, digital transformation means technology is becoming more fundamental to NHS operations.
That creates an uncomfortable equation:
more reliance on technology + a volatile hardware market + continued pressure to deliver savings.
For procurement teams, responding to that cannot simply mean asking existing suppliers to reduce their margins.
It requires better market visibility.
Yesterday's IT price may no longer be a useful benchmark
One of the problems with a rapidly changing technology market is that historic pricing becomes less meaningful.
A laptop purchased six months ago for £600 does not necessarily tell you whether £650 represents poor value today.
Likewise, a quote obtained several weeks ago may no longer reflect current distributor pricing, availability or manufacturer incentives.
This makes the timing of price comparison increasingly important.
Rather than asking:
“Is this cheaper than we paid last year?”
the more useful question becomes:
“Is this competitive against the market available to us today?”
Those are two very different measures of value.
And in a market where prices are moving, procurement teams need visibility of both.
Framework compliance and price competition are different things
Frameworks remain an important part of NHS technology procurement.
NHS England currently recommends a range of endorsed routes for digital and IT purchasing, including RM6098 Technology Products and Associated Services 2 and NHS SBS/NOE CPC Link 4 for non-clinical hardware.
They provide an established, compliant route to market and reduce much of the complexity associated with sourcing technology.
But choosing the correct procurement route is only part of the buying decision.
Once that route has been established, procurement teams still need to understand:
• what products are available • which suppliers can fulfil the requirement • what pricing is available now • whether manufacturer or sector discounts apply • whether an alternative specification offers better value • and whether the eventual decision can be clearly evidenced In a stable market, relatively small differences may not attract much attention.
Across hundreds or thousands of IT purchases, during a period of significant price movement, they can quickly become material.
Product availability could become as important as headline price
Price isn't the only potential issue.
When particular components become constrained, manufacturers naturally adjust.
Specifications change. Product ranges narrow. Certain configurations become harder to obtain. Alternative models are introduced and older SKUs disappear.
IDC has specifically warned that manufacturers may struggle to maintain their full PC portfolios while the memory shortage continues.
For NHS organisations with standard device builds, this creates another procurement challenge.
Imagine an approved laptop is suddenly unavailable.
Do buyers wait?
Purchase the next available specification?
Move manufacturer?
Accept additional memory or storage they don't actually require?
Or purchase a lower specification because it happens to be available?
Without agreed alternatives, a supply issue can quickly become a governance issue.
That makes it worth defining acceptable equivalent products and specifications before availability becomes critical.
Planned demand becomes more valuable in a volatile market
Nobody can predict precisely where every hardware price will move next.
But most NHS organisations can predict a reasonable proportion of their demand.
Device refresh programmes, new starters, ward projects, infrastructure upgrades, site moves and lifecycle replacement programmes rarely appear completely without warning.
Giving procurement greater visibility of that future requirement creates options.
Some purchases may justify bringing forward.
Others may be better phased.
Some specifications could be standardised.
And larger known requirements may create opportunities for manufacturer special pricing or volume agreements.
The important distinction is between planned buying and panic buying.
Market volatility should not encourage organisations to stockpile unnecessary equipment.
It should encourage IT, finance and procurement teams to share demand information earlier.
Being able to evidence avoided cost matters too
This is perhaps one of the more interesting points for NHS procurement teams.
NHS England's procurement value and savings methodology recognises more than straightforward purchase-price reductions.
It also allows procurement value to include non-cashable savings and cost avoidance — including negated inflation.
That becomes particularly relevant in the current IT market.
If the market price of a particular category increases but procurement activity enables an organisation to secure a better outcome through competition, alternative sourcing, negotiated discounts or specification changes, there may still be genuine procurement value even where the final invoice price is higher than it was last year.
But demonstrating that requires evidence.
What was the prevailing market price?
What alternatives were available?
What supplier prices were compared?
What discounts applied?
And what was ultimately selected?
Without that information, genuine procurement value can become difficult to demonstrate retrospectively.
So what should NHS IT procurement teams be doing now?
I don't think the answer is particularly complicated.
But it does require a slightly more dynamic approach to IT buying.
- Map upcoming hardware demand
Look beyond individual requisitions and identify known requirements over the next 6–12 months.
- Monitor the market, not just historic purchase prices
Use current supplier and distributor pricing to understand whether today's quote represents value today.
- Compare before committing
Where possible, compare the same product across multiple available sources rather than treating the first compliant price as the market price.
- Agree acceptable alternatives
Define the manufacturers, specifications and product substitutions that can be used if preferred devices become unavailable.
- Capture the evidence
Retain the pricing, availability, discounts and comparisons behind purchasing decisions.
- Use the right route to market
Continue to align technology buying with NHS-endorsed frameworks and local procurement policies.
- Bring IT, procurement and finance closer together
When markets move quickly, earlier visibility of demand creates more opportunity to manage both price and supply risk.
This is about visibility, not predicting the market
There will always be movement in technology pricing.
Some component pressures will ease. Others will emerge. Manufacturers will respond and product portfolios will change.
Trying to predict the precise bottom or top of the market isn't a realistic procurement strategy.
Having enough information to make a good decision at the point of purchase is.
For NHS procurement teams, that means combining compliant routes to market with current pricing intelligence, supplier competition, demand planning and a clear audit trail.
In a market where the cost of technology is becoming less predictable, visibility may be one of the most useful cost controls available.
At Probrand, this is something we're watching closely. Our free-to-use Procurement Platform enables NHS organisations to compare live IT pricing across authorised distributors, access public-sector pricing and buy through frameworks including RM6098 and NHS SBS Link 4, while retaining the evidence behind each purchasing decision.
If you're responsible for IT procurement within an NHS organisation and would like to compare how you're buying today with what is currently available in the market, I'm always happy to share what we're seeing. - If you would like a demo of the FREE Probrand Procurement Platform - Book here